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Tweaking
evacuation time to allow housing is developers' ruse
A Monroe
County Commission task force seeks to decrease our evacuation safety in
order to increase development in the form of more "affordable housing."
I believe this will become a callous conversion of our public safety
into developers' profits. Rising property values have the potential to
strangle some sectors of the economy, but we must find solutions that do
not compromise public safety.
Development
is prudently limited by the public-safety requirement to meet a 24-hour
evacuation. Planners use a large electronic "hurricane-evacuation model"
spreadsheet to calculate a theoretical evacuation "clearance time" time
for the county. Because the resulting clearance time is very near the
24-hour limit, high rates of new development have been curtailed — until
now.
Last year,
the County Commission removed a constraint to development when they
instantly reduced our theoretical clearance time through passage of
Ordinance 023-2005. It is important to note this was a "paper" maneuver
that did nothing to enhance real-world safety. They simply removed two
large segments of the evacuating public from the calculation and
miraculously "improved" the results by six hours. By "re-filling" the
clearance time back to the brink of 24 hours, this magical "improvement"
could allow nearly 20,000 new dwellings to be built (equivalent to
40,000 new residents). Those familiar with the evacuation model do not
dispute these numbers.
This is the
equivalent of declaring a troubled home budget in surplus after removing
the mortgage payment from the balance sheet — and then buying a boat
with the newfound wealth.
Prior to
last year — when the Department of Community Affairs perpetrated this
ruse with the collusion of Commissioners [Sonny] McCoy, [Dixie] Spehar,
[Murray] Nelson and [David] Rice (Commissioner [George] Neugent opposed
this maneuver vehemently) — evacuation of the Keys was based on the
prudent assumption that it is possible that our tourists and mobile home
dwellers might not have adequate time to evacuate before a general
evacuation.
It is
neither wise nor in the public interest to assume we need to increase
development and then to search for convenient anecdotal evidence to
support the goal. The Key West Chamber of Commerce was quoted [as
stating] "there is a big expected exodus at the end of the school year,"
but they are hardly an unbiased source for evacuation facts that affect
development.
Regarding
the "you don't need to count second homes" argument, emergency managers
will tell you that absentee owners from the mainland often generate more
traffic prior to hurricanes because they drive into the Keys, secure
their homes and boats and then join the evacuation, often with their
boats in tow.
Although we
cannot reach the mainland without traversing Miami-Dade County, the
official Monroe County evacuation model does not include any traffic in
Miami-Dade County. Any benefit from the reduction in Monroe County's
population is more than trumped by the much greater Miami-Dade
population growth rate.
Last
September, [Hurricane] Rita grew from a tropical storm to a Category 5
hurricane in 30 hours. Wilma proved the storm-surge risk is real.
Removing the tourists and mobile home dwellers from the evacuation
calculations is irresponsible. Further reducing the clearance time by
cherry-picking anecdotal evidence compounds the offense.
In reality,
proximity to the mainland determines the degree of the housing problem.
While in-county housing is always preferable for local employees, in the
Upper Keys modest rental properties stand vacant and folks cash out to
commute from the mainland because it offers more for the housing dollar.
I believe
the county should redouble its efforts to retain existing affordable
housing, and increase the portion of the existing development rate
dedicated to new affordable housing. What is being proposed is
significant additional development, ostensibly to provide housing for
the average working person. Even this is dishonest, since those
supporting the county ordinance specifically refused to use the income
and residence requirements inherent in the term "affordable housing"
(read, lower profit). Instead, Ordinance 023-2005 authorizes an
unspecified quantity of new "workforce housing" which is not defined in
our code and is therefore void of size, cost, income and residence
restrictions. It is a developer's dream come true.
We're being
asked to convert our public safety to developers' profits, without any
real hope of solving the housing issue.
John
Hammerstrom is a Tavernier resident and civic activist. |
