Evacuation based on best-case
scenario
18-hour estimate stops at Tavernier
By Ann Henson
Citizen Staff
A state agency put a rosy tint on a new evacuation estimate for the
Keys, ignoring worst-case scenarios, according to some state and county
officials.
The state Department of Community Affairs, which regulates growth in the
Keys, confirmed Friday that it had accepted a shorter evacuation
estimate of 18.2 hours, based on a study by the South Florida Regional
Planning Council.
The study figures that 25 percent of residents wouldn't evacuate and
that tourists, mobile-home residents and others would leave earlier.
Also, the study only considered evacuation up to Tavernier, not to the
mainland.
The plan will be considered by the governor and Cabinet on Tuesday.
But the state's planning consultant said that 35.7 hours is needed to
ensure the health and safety of all.
"The 18 hours was a test scenario and assumed that some portion of
Monroe County residents won't evacuate," said Rebecca Garavoile,
regional planner for the South Florida Regional Planning Council. "That
assumption is not consistent with a policy designed to ensure the safe
evacuation of all Monroe County residents."
County Emergency Management Director Irene Toner also has said that a
longer time frame -- 36 yours -- is more realistic.
The current state-mandated evacuation time for Monroe County is less
than 24 hours. Because the county is an Area of Critical State Concern,
the DCA limits new building permits based on whether the area can meet
the official evacuation estimate.
Keys officials, meanwhile, say they need all the building permits they
can get in the face of an affordable housing crisis.
Alexis Antonacci, DCA spokeswoman, said in an email Friday that Monroe
County officials had considered a number of variables and are confident
that the new time frame can be met.
"The implementation of these strategies [removing some populations in
the estimate] in 2004-2005 provides us with confidence that the
emergency officials can provide protection for their citizens," she
wrote.
In 2004, the DCA suggested removing from the estimate tourists,
mobile-home residents, hospital patients and special-needs people,
saying they are all evacuated 36 hours ahead of a potential residential
evacuation for a Category 3 or higher hurricane.
Left out of the new, 18.2 hour estimate are:
- 25 percent of the general population, who are not expected to leave;
- seasonal residents;
- all residents of Key Largo and most of Tavernier, because the
calculations stop at Mile Marker 90, where the road widens to four
lanes;
- any accidents;
- potentially 6,000 households at Florida City Commons, a planned
development for the top of the 18-Mile Stretch;
- a quickly forming Category 5 storm.
Toner said guessing who would leave or not is difficult.
"You can't say that 75 percent would leave -- it could be more or less,"
she said. "Our evacuation numbers have always varied from 10 percent to
75 percent. That's one of the most unpredictable things in the county."
Toner added, though, that she hadn't seen the proposal now headed for
the Cabinet meeting on Tuesday.
"But if [the study] doesn't include airlifting hospital patients out,
that's one thing," she said, adding that she would comment in more detail
after reviewing the plan thoroughly.
Sheriff Rick Roth said using history as a guide, the county would be in
fine shape.
"But if you have a Category 5 that looks like Hurricane Katrina going
for New Orleans, you'd get a bigger evacuation, and then you might find
out just what the highway would carry."
ahenson@keysnews.com |
